October Surprise? It could be but…

 


Here is something that may or may not factor in when predicting the outcome of the coming Presidential election that people seem to talk about coming into the ballot. It is what is termed an “October Surprise”.

The term "October Surprise" refers to a political event or revelation that occurs in the final weeks of a U.S. presidential election, often designed to sway voters and impact the outcome. It is typically released in October, just before the November election, making it difficult for the opposing candidate to respond effectively. The most famous example occurred in 1972, when President Nixon's Secretary of State announced that peace was near in Vietnam, boosting Nixon's re-election bid. Other notable instances include the 2016 revelation of FBI Director James Comey's investigation into Hillary Clinton's emails and the 1980 speculation of secret negotiations to delay the release of American hostages in Iran. October surprises are often viewed as strategic moves that leverage timing to exploit or undermine candidates during the critical closing stretch of a campaign.

At this point, it may be tempting to term this next piece of information within that lens. I would recommend that the reader of this piece take in a cup of black coffee and a large shaker of salt. What I am referring to is the news according to CNN and Newsweek.

They said that in a brief order, Justice Tanya Chutkan September 26, gave Trump's legal team a deadline of October 1 to respond to Smith's motion and a deadline of October 10 to respond to the motion's appendix.

The Washington Post reports that the brief was a large 180 + page document that outlined how Trump can be criminally prosecuted for his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election landed Thursday in D.C. federal court, triggering a process that could end in the public seeing significant new details of the case before the November election.

Trump claims to be the victim of a politically motivated "witch hunt" and has accused Smith filed an updated indictment of Trump late last month, retooling the case to comply with the Supreme Court's recent ruling granting immunity to sitting presidents when conducting certain "official" acts.

Of course, Number 45 will accuse Smith of attempting to "interfere" in the 2024 presidential election by prosecuting him.

Smith's brief will highlight Trump's actions as a candidate, not as president, in the aftermath of the 2020 election, a response to the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling in July that found the former president immune from facing criminal charges related to his official duties in office.

Chutkan will have the final say on how much of Smith's evidence against Trump will be released to the public, although it is likely that a redacted version of the brief could come before Election Day, which is November 5.

Of course, using the term “October Surprise” in connection with this story would seem to be appropriate with reference to this story. However, we have always known about the violent takeover attempt upon the capital on January 6th, 2021 since it took place. The only reason why this story matters now is because of the manner in which the story will be told, in a court of law, revealing new evidence that could prove the 45th President guilty of election subversion, and interfering with a federal proceeding.

What a wonderful way to bring in a hotly contentious race to the highest office in the land.

References:

Sneed and Polantz, 2024. Special counsel files evidence under seal against Trump in election subversion case. Retrieved from https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/26/politics/special-counsel-files-new-evidence-against-trump-under-seal-in-election-case/index.html

Silsco, A. (2024). Jack Smith's Evidence Update as Judge Sets Deadline for Trump. Retrieved from https://www.newsweek.com/jack-smiths-evidence-update-judge-sets-deadline-trump-1960623

Hsu, S. (2024). Jack Smith lays out Jan. 6 case against Trump. Will filing be public? Retrieved from https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2024/09/26/trump-jan-6-case-filing-under-seal/

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