What the 2024 Debate Would Tell Us about the upcoming Presidential Election

 

The 2024 presidential debates are poised to offer crucial insights into the upcoming election. These debates are not just opportunities for candidates to present their policies and argue their platforms; they are pivotal events that can shape public perception, sway undecided voters, and crystallize the key issues of the election cycle. Here are several ways the 2024 debates might give us a clearer picture of what to expect in November.

At this debate, hosted by CNN, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump traded barbs, and a variety of false and misleading information as they faced off in their first debate of the 2024 election.

As a candidate, Trump showed off his greatest weakness, having had a terrible track record as a leader, and a capacity to lie about the details of his misdeeds.

For instance, Number 45’s revisionist account of the January 6th assault on the capitol as a “…relatively small number of people who were ushered in by police,” doesn’t stand up when exposed to the historical record. (AP, 2024).

According to The Associated Press, the attack on the Capitol “…was the deadliest assault on the seat of American power in over 200 years. As thoroughly documented by video, photographs, and people who were there, thousands of people descended on Capitol Hill in what became a brutal scene of hand-to-hand combat with police” (2024).

As for police cooperating with the rioters? On March 7, 2023, U.S. Capitol Police Chief J. Thomas Manger issued a memo that said that the allegation that “our officers helped the rioters and acted as ‘tour guides’” was “outrageous and false.” A Capitol Police spokesperson confirmed the memo’s authenticity to The Associated Press (2024).

More than 1,400 people have been charged with federal crimes stemming from the riot. More than 850 people have pleaded guilty to crimes, and 200 others have been convicted at trial. (2024).

Trump also told a few more whoppers during the debate. His claim that then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was offered “…10,000 soldiers or National Guard” which she “…turned down” has proven false.

The Associated Press reported that “Pelosi did not direct the National Guard. Further, as the Capitol came under attack, she and then-Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell called for military assistance, including from the National Guard.” (2024).

It gets better: According to the Associated Press, “The Capitol Police Board” decides upon “…whether to call National Guard troops to the Capitol. It is made up of the House Sergeant at Arms, the Senate Sergeant at Arms and the Architect of the Capitol. The board decided not to call the guard ahead of the insurrection but did eventually request assistance after the rioting had already begun, and the troops arrived several hours later.” (2024).

“The House Sergeant at Arms reported to Pelosi and the Senate Sergeant at Arms reported to McConnell. There is no evidence that either Pelosi or McConnell directed the security officials not to call the guard beforehand. Drew Hammill, a then-spokesperson for Pelosi, said after the insurrection that Pelosi was never informed of such a request.” (2024).

The line that Trump likes to use in rallies, “He wants to raise your taxes by four times,” is also untrue. The current administration wants to prevent tax increases on anyone making less than $400,000, which is the vast majority of taxpayers. (AP, 2024).

More importantly, Biden’s budget proposal does not increase taxes as much as Trump claims, though the increases are focused on corporations and the wealthy. Trump’s 2017 tax cuts for individuals are set to expire after 2025 because they were not fully funded when they became law. (AP, 2024),

 Furthermore, Trump’s claim that, referring to Jan. 6, 2021, the day a mob of his supporters stormed the Capitol to stop the certification of Biden’s victory: “…we had the lowest taxes ever. We had the lowest regulations ever.”

Truth be known, the current federal income tax was only instituted in 1913, and tax rates have fluctuated significantly in the decades since. Rates were lower in the 1920s, just before the Great Depression. Trump cut taxes during his time in the White House, but the rates were not the lowest in U.S. history.

Government regulations have also ebbed and flowed in the country’s history, but regulations have increased overall as the country modernized and its population grew. Many more regulations cover the environment, employment, financial transactions, and other aspects of daily life. While Trump slashed some regulations, he didn’t take the country back to the less regulated days of its past. (AP, 2024).

Debates are high-stakes platforms where candidates' strengths and weaknesses are laid bare for the nation to see. Performance in these debates can reveal how well candidates handle pressure, their ability to articulate policies clearly, and their aptitude for thinking on their feet. For instance, a candidate who performs well in a debate might demonstrate strong communication skills and a firm grasp of key issues, which can enhance their public image and voter confidence. Conversely, poor performance can highlight gaps in knowledge, inconsistencies in policy positions, or a lack of composure under pressure.

Though Biden made a few missteps during the debate, claiming a $15 cap on insulin prices for instance (it is $35, which this diabetic believes is a step in the right direction), the previous occupant of the Oval Office made statements that drew stunned expressions on President Biden’s face and perhaps a little bit of well-found outrage as well. Here is a short list of some of Trump’s most onerous gaffes:

Climate Change – “…during my four years, I had the best environmental numbers ever…immaculate…” air and water.

Really? While in office, the Orange One rolled back some provisions of the Clean Water Act, eased regulations on coal, oil, and gas companies, and pulled the U.S. out of the Paris climate accord. (AP, 2018).

When wildfires struck California in 2020, Trump dismissed the scientific consensus that climate change had played a role.

Orange Julius Caesar also dismissed scientists’ warnings about climate change and routinely proposed deep cuts to the Environmental Protection Agency, reductions that were blocked by both Democratic and Republican lawmakers. (2020).

Abortion - “The problem they have is they’re radical because they will take the life of a child in the eighth month, the ninth month, and even after birth, after birth.”

Wowsers! This one did not slip by Biden. He called it a “lie” when he was given the chance to respond. The Associated Press said in their debate coverage that, “Trump inaccurately referred to abortions after birth. Infanticide is criminalized in every state, and no state has passed a law that allows killing a baby after birth.”

Abortion rights advocates say terms like this and “late-term abortions” attempt to stigmatize abortions later in pregnancy. Abortions later in pregnancy are exceedingly rare. In 2020, less than 1% of abortions in the United States were performed at or after 21 weeks, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Abortions later in pregnancy also are usually the result of serious complications, such as fetal anomalies, that put the life of the woman or fetus at risk, medical experts say. In most cases, these are also wanted pregnancies, experts say.” (AP News, 2023) (2024).

Wall Street reporter and Russian detainee, Evan Gershkovich: “He should have had him out a long time ago, but Putin’s probably asking for billions and billions of dollars because this guy pays it every time.”

Not true. Sorry. The Associated Press clarifies that “Trump is wrong to say that Biden pays any sort of fee “every time” to secure the release of hostages and wrongfully detained Americans. There’s also zero evidence that Putin is asking for any money … to free Gershkovich. Just like in the Trump administration, the deals during the Biden administration that have brought home hostages and detainees involved prisoner swaps -- not money transfers.

Trump’s reference to money appeared to be about the 2023 deal in which the U.S. secured the release of five detained Americans in Iran after billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets were transferred from banks in South Korea to Qatar. The U.S. has said that the money would be held in restricted accounts and will only be able to be used for humanitarian goods, such as medicine and food.”

Biden made some missteps during the debate as well.

Covid 19 – “…Trump told Americans to ‘inject bleach’ into their arms to treat COVID-19.”

Not exactly. The Associated Press said that it was an overstatement. “…Trump asked whether it would be possible to inject disinfectant into the lungs.” (2024).

These are some of the topics that dominated the debate and will signal the critical issues that are likely to define the election. This debate was particularly crucial for undecided and swing voters. These voters often look to debates to help them make informed decisions. A candidate’s ability to connect with these voters through compelling arguments and relatable anecdotes can be decisive.

Tracking changes in support among these groups after each debate can provide insights into which candidate is gaining momentum and why.

Of course, this article is not at all inclusive of all that went on during the debate. In truth, I have relied heavily upon the Associated Press’ coverage of the 2024 debate for material here. I found their coverage of the subject to be truthful and fair. I have left the links below.

I will be writing more on this in the future. Thank you for reading this far.

References:

AP (2024). Biden’s budget proposal for a second term offers tax breaks for families and lower health care costs. Retrieved June 30, 2024, from https://apnews.com/article/biden-budget-deficit-9ac66a99e741dab656c15116408060a5

AP News (2024). FACT FOCUS: Here’s a look at some of the false claims made during Biden and Trump’s first debate. Retrieved June 28, 2024, from https://apnews.com/article/fact-check-misinformation-election-debate-trump-biden-577507522762aa10f6ee5be3a0ced2bb

AP News (2018). Trump EPA orders rollback of Obama mercury regulations. Retrieved June 30, 2024, from https://apnews.com/article/5c675cd468e648e7b97d4988bbb3d05e

AP News (2020). Trump spurns science on climate: ‘Don’t think science knows’ Retrieved June 30, 2024, from https://apnews.com/article/climate-climate-change-elections-joe-biden-campaigns-bd152cd786b58e45c61bebf2457f9930

AP News (2024). Trump downplays deadly Charlottesville rally by comparing it to campus protests over Gaza war. Retrieved June 30, 2024, from https://apnews.com/article/trump-charlottesville-college-protests-gaza-biden-antisemitism-b19a1ae593b076d5314f08549b1b0d7b